Cowen and Company

(Photograph Courtesy of CP via Twitter)

CP’s Creel: 2022, ‘A Tale of Two Halves’ (UPDATED, Cowen)

“Throughout the year, we have said 2022 would be a tale of two halves and that is exactly how it is unfolding,” Canadian Pacific (CP) President and CEO Keith Creel said on Oct. 26. “The third quarter saw strong demand in potash and intermodal that we anticipated, and CP was well-resourced to handle the volume increases we have seen.”

“We continue to be enthusiastic about our business, and expect a solid fourth quarter to close the year with strong momentum and visibility for 2023,” Trinity President and CEO Jean Savage said on Oct. 25.

Trinity’s Savage: ‘Strong Momentum’ for 2023

Trinity Industries on Oct. 25 reported third-quarter 2022 GAAP and adjusted earnings that “show progress and improvement in our business,” according to President and CEO Jean Savage. “We continue to believe we will perform well in the coming years given our robust backlog and the favorable re-pricing environment for lease rates.”

“Order expectations from shippers’ remain relatively in line from our second-quarter survey, but the level of certainty moderately declined in our recent survey,” Cowen analysts report. “It appears that gondolas saw demand improvement relative to second-quarter 2022. Boxcars declined relative to second-quarter 2022.”

Cowen: 3Q22 Shipper Surveys Say …

According to Cowen and Company’s recently conducted third-quarter 2022 Rail Equipment and Rail Shipper surveys, the positive outlook for railcar orders remains relatively unchanged from the second quarter, and rail shipping pricing expectations have ticked down sequentially. Details follow, plus insights on the Class I railroads, ahead of earnings.

(Photograph Courtesy of CP)

Cowen: ‘Looking Down the Windy Tracks’

A strike has been averted for now as the major unions reached tentative agreements. Contracts details are expected to be in line with the Presidential Emergency Board recommendations. The railroads will have to gradually pass through costs as contracts are renewed if they want to keep margins intact. This may prove difficult as we head into an economic slowdown. We continue to favor Canadian Pacific (CP) in the rail group.


NEARS 2022 Conference: Day One Takeaways

At the NEARS (North East Association of Rail Shippers) Fall 2022 Conference, participants say they are still waiting to see consistency in rail service. Technical metrics are gradually improving, but in our view, fluidity will not show significant improvement until first-half 2023. On the first day of sessions (Sept. 21), many attendees expressed surprise that CSX reached outside the rail network for its new CEO. Also, Surface Transportation Board Chairman Martin Oberman foreshadowed a more proactive STB. Our key takeaways follow.