Finance/Leasing

Cowen: “COVID-19’s Effect as Large As The Great Recession”

“Permanent changes in trade flows will likely cause the Port of LA to permanently lose about 15% of its market share to Gulf and East Coast ports, a clear negative for Union Pacific but favorable for CSX, Kansas City Southern and Norfolk Southern. COVID-19 has had as large of an effect as the Great Recession. Peak season expectations were mixed to positive, with retail inventory replenishment likely needed.”

Cowen: “Cash For Clunkers,” Spot Lease Rate Recovery and Other Observations

“A resuscitation of a long-futile push for railcar scrappage tax subsidies may be under way. While the effort is in its infancy, and the outcome remains speculative, we see success as less of a long shot than it has been at any time in the past. This would be positive for railcar suppliers, including Trinity and Greenbrier, and metals companies such as Schnitzer Steel, Commercial Metals Company, Nucor Corporation and Steel Dynamics.”

Savage: “Trinity Managed Through Significant Headwinds” in 2Q20

Trinity Industries, Inc. announced financial and operating results for second-quarter 2020, and, like many in the industry, it navigated “significant headwinds related to the COVID-19 pandemic and economic fallout”—to the tune of a $206.9 million loss. Quarterly total company revenues of $509 million and quarterly loss from continuing operations per common diluted share (EPS) of $1.76 and quarterly adjusted EPS of $0.02.

Recovery, Growth, Car Supply Confront Rail

FINANCIAL EDGE, RAILWAY AGE, JULY 2020 ISSUE: On the June 17 Railway Age Rail Insights webcast (held in lieu of the usual conference in Chicago), the path forward for rail and the post-pandemic future of rail loadings was on the mind of presenters and the audience. The rail industry is searching for the bottom and looking for “green shoots” that suggest the market has “bottomed,” and that loadings might start to return to normal levels.

GBX Fiscal 3Q2020: “Liquidity Target Achieved, Backlog Provides Forward Visibility” as Furman Postpones Retirement

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc., in its third fiscal quarter ended May 31, 2020, achieved its $1 billion liquidity target and generated operating cash flow in excess of $220 million, with a backlog of an estimated value of $2.7 billion. Concurrently, the company reported that Bill Furman will remain as Chairman and CEO for another two years.

Defining Private Railcar Storage Best Practices

There are things the regulators don’t tell you about marshaling and storing freight cars, such as how to detect rail head wear. Most railroad executives would not know how to do this. This commentary will include a few pointers that your favorite Class I railroad salesperson won’t typically pass on as business intelligence. Bad things can and do occasionally happen in rail yards. Therefore, it is prudent risk management to consider these matters ahead of time.