“Consistent with our initial outlook, the railcar leasing environment in North America remains robust,” GATX President and CEO Robert C. Lyons said during a report on third-quarter 2023 financials, which included Rail North America fleet utilization of 99.3% and a renewal success rate of 83.6%.
Railcar demand showed some resilience against a tough macro backdrop, although we view the results of our third-quarter 2023 Rail Equipment Survey as a slight incremental negative for manufacturing and possibly a slight positive for leasing. Our third-quarter 2023 Rail Survey showed that expected rate increases were +3.2%, declining sequentially and sitting below the survey’s long-term average. Business growth expectations remain unchanged, and economic confidence worsened.
At TD Cowen, we are lowering our rail estimates ahead of third-quarter earnings reports to reflect a very challenged environment. Leaders in the rail and logistics market who attended our latest Railroad Happy Hour” called the current outlook “bleak,” with growing uncertainty in 2025.
We hosted freight industry “fireside chats” and presentations on Day 1 of the TD Cowen 16th Annual Global Transportation Conference, being held Sept. 6-7 in Boston. While we heard that the rail
Wabtec “delivered another strong quarter” for the three months ending June 30, 2023, with double-digit earnings per share growth, said President and CEO Rafael Santana, who noted during a July 27 financial report that the “orders pipeline is expected to strengthen” in second-half 2023. The company also raised its full-year 2023 guidance.
Railcar demand showed some resilience against a tough macro backdrop, although we view the results of our Second Quarter 2023 Rail Equipment Survey as a slight incremental negative, similar to our 1Q23
GATX will report its Lease Price Index (LPI) based on a modified methodology beginning with second-quarter 2023. Weighing in on the move: David Nahass, Railway Age Financial Editor, and Matt Elkott, TD Cowen Transportation OEM Analyst and Vice President Equity Research.
The Greenbrier Companies’ third fiscal quarter, ending May 31, 2023, “reflects continued operating momentum and strong commercial activity,” President and CEO Lorie L. Tekorius said June 29 during the Oregon-based railcar manufacturer’s financial report. The company also raised its delivery and revenue guidance for the year, and announced that Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) advisor Patrick J. Ottensmeyer has joined its Board of Directors. TD Cowen offers insight.
While we don’t know definitively, a part of Wabtec Corp.’s pre-owned locomotive order may not have been reflected in its guidance and could mean a mild incremental benefit, according to four rail and rail equipment expert panelists at TD Cowen’s June 27 virtual roundtable on the current state and outlook of the rail, locomotive, and railcar leasing and manufacturing markets.
We hosted a June 15 call with Marty Oberman, Chairman of the Surface Transportation Board, on Thursday. We see a reciprocal switching ruling well before year-end, and a bottleneck ruling potentially in 2024. Rail service continues to be at the forefront of the STB’s agenda. The CPKC merger has increased competition through new north-south lanes, though further Class I consolidation is increasingly unlikely.
