Author: Jason Seidl, Matt Elkott, Elliot Alper and Uday Khanapurkar, TD Cowen

Commentary

Oberman: STB Remains Actively Involved in Rail Reg Mods

We hosted a June 15 call with Marty Oberman, Chairman of the Surface Transportation Board, on Thursday. We see a reciprocal switching ruling well before year-end, and a bottleneck ruling potentially in 2024. Rail service continues to be at the forefront of the STB’s agenda. The CPKC merger has increased competition through new north-south lanes, though further Class I consolidation is increasingly unlikely.

Commentary

TD Cowen: NEARS Conference Key Takeaways

We attended the NEARS (Northeast Association of Rail Shippers) Conference, where shippers discussed the current state of the rail industry. Rail service and safety was center stage, with panelist consensus embracing a challenged rail network to start 2023. In our view, decelerating rail volumes and excess capacity over the road may lead the rails to revise outlook during Q123 earnings.

Within the 49% of total shippers who are contemplating railcar orders in the next 12 months, 58% said “yes,” they plan to place orders, versus 54% in third-quarter 2022, and 42% said “maybe,” compared with 46% in third-quarter 2022. This could mean an increased level of certainty about ordering within the total shipper group relative to last quarter. Box and tank cars saw demand improvement relative to third-quarter 2022. Hoppers, gondolas and centerbeams declined relative to third-quarter 2022.
Commentary

Cowen Insight: 4Q22 Shipper Surveys Say …

According to Cowen and Company’s recently conducted fourth-quarter 2022 Rail Equipment and Rail Shipper surveys, the demand for railcars remains strong, and rail-shipping pricing expectations ticked up sequentially. Details follow, plus insights on the Class I railroads, ahead of earnings.