Commentary

Cowen Insight: 4Q22 Shipper Surveys Say …

Written by Jason Seidl, Elliot Alper and Uday Khanapurkar, TD Cowen
Within the 49% of total shippers who are contemplating railcar orders in the next 12 months, 58% said “yes,” they plan to place orders, versus 54% in third-quarter 2022, and 42% said “maybe,” compared with 46% in third-quarter 2022. This could mean an increased level of certainty about ordering within the total shipper group relative to last quarter. Box and tank cars saw demand improvement relative to third-quarter 2022. Hoppers, gondolas and centerbeams declined relative to third-quarter 2022.

Within the 49% of total shippers who are contemplating railcar orders in the next 12 months, 58% said “yes,” they plan to place orders, versus 54% in third-quarter 2022, and 42% said “maybe,” compared with 46% in third-quarter 2022. This could mean an increased level of certainty about ordering within the total shipper group relative to last quarter. Box and tank cars saw demand improvement relative to third-quarter 2022. Hoppers, gondolas and centerbeams declined relative to third-quarter 2022.

According to Cowen and Company’s recently conducted fourth-quarter 2022 Rail Equipment and Rail Shipper surveys, the demand for railcars remains strong, and rail-shipping pricing expectations ticked up sequentially. Details follow, plus insights on the Class I railroads, ahead of earnings.

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