AAR: ‘January Not Necessarily a Harbinger of What’s to Come’

“In January, severe winter weather significantly disrupted railroad and rail customer operations in much of the country,” said Association of American Railroads (AAR) economist Dan Keen. “Moreover, uncertainty remains in the economy, especially in sectors that are important to railroads, like manufacturing. Because of these factors, January is not necessarily a harbinger of what’s to come for rail traffic in the months ahead.”

For the first month of 2024, total U.S. rail traffic was down 7.2%, or 79,725 carloads compared with January 2023, according to a Feb. 7 AAR report.

U.S. railroads also originated 1,206,014 containers and trailers in January 2024, up 5.5%, or 63,195 units, from the same month last year. Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in January 2024 were 2,231,182, down 0.7%, or 16,530 carloads and intermodal units from January 2023.

In January 2024, six of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw carload gains compared with January 2023. These included: chemicals, up 4,298 carloads or 2.9%; petroleum & petroleum products, up 2,172 carloads or 4.5%; and primary metal products, up 1,447 carloads or 3.6%. Commodities that saw declines in January 2024 from January 2023 included: coal, down 40,542 carloads or 12.3%; crushed stone, sand & gravel, down 18,260 carloads or 19.5%; and grain, down 14,367 carloads or 12.8%.

Excluding coal, carloads were down 39,183 carloads, or 5.0%, in January 2024 from January 2023. Excluding coal and grain, carloads were down 24,816 carloads, or 3.7%.

Week Ending February 3, 2024

For the week ending Feb. 3, 2024 (Week 5), total U.S. rail traffic was up 11.6% compared with the same week last year; carloads were up 6.3% and intermodal was up 16.5% compared to 2023.

Canadian and Mexican railroads saw an increase in carloads, up 1.8% and 0.4%, respectively. Canadian railroads saw a 12.7% increase in intermodal while Mexican railroads reported an 8.6% increase.

In Week 5 (ending Feb. 3, 2024), U.S. Class I railroads hauled 222,213 carloads and 269,484 containers and trailers.

According to AAR, all of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2023. They included coal, up 4,641 carloads, to 62,779; motor vehicles and parts, up 2,297 carloads, to 15,455; and metallic ores and metals, up 1,096 carloads, to 19,457.

For the first five weeks of 2024, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 222,213 carloads, up 6.3% compared with the same week in 2023; and 269,484 containers and trailers, up 16.5% compared to 2023. U.S. rail traffic was 491,697 carloads and intermodal units, up 11.6% compared with the same week last year.

North American rail volume for the week ending February 3, 2024, on 10 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 328,148 carloads, up 4.7% compared with the same week last year, and 352,559 intermodal units, up 15.4% compared with last year. Total combined weekly rail traffic in North America was 680,707 carloads and intermodal units, up 10.0%. North American rail volume for the first five weeks of 2024 was 3,112,134 carloads and intermodal units, down 1.4% compared with 2023.

Canadian railroads reported 91,685 carloads for the week, up 1.8%, and 72,643 intermodal units, up 12.7% compared with the same week in 2023. For the first five weeks of 2024, Canadian railroads reported cumulative rail traffic volume of 743,641 carloads, containers and trailers, down 5.8%.

Mexican railroads reported 14,250 carloads for the week, up 0.4% compared with the same week last year, and 10,432 intermodal units, up 8.6%. Cumulative volume on Mexican railroads for the first five weeks of 2024 was 137,311 carloads and intermodal containers and trailers, up 16.1% from the same point last year.