AAR: February Data Shows Elements That ‘Inspire Optimism, Call for Caution’

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“In February, U.S. rail traffic recovered from disruptions caused by severe winter weather in January. However, a closer look at February’s rail traffic data shows elements that inspire optimism and elements that call for caution,” said Association of American Railroad’s (AAR) newly appointed Chief Economist Dr. Rand Ghayad.

For the second month of 2024, U.S. railroads originated 885,548 carloads in February 2023, down 1.3%, or 11,410 carloads compared with February 2023, according to a March 7 AAR report.

U.S. railroads also originated 1,040,312 containers and trailers in February 2024, up 10.9%, or 102,140 units, from the same month last year. Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in February 2024 were 1,925,860, up 4.9%, or 90,730 carloads and intermodal units from February 2023.

“Intermodal volumes have consistently grown over the past six months, signaling increased confidence among consumers and retailers,” said Ghayad. “At the same time, carloads of industrial products remain below levels from last spring and summer, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industrial sector.”

In February 2024, 13 of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw carload gains compared with February 2023. These included: motor vehicles and parts, up 6,777 carloads or 12.3%; chemicals, up 6,522 carloads or 5.1%; and grain, up 4,971 carloads or 6.3%. Commodities that saw declines in February 2024 from February 2023 included: coal, down 31,912 carloads or 11.7%; crushed stone, sand and gravel, down 8,037 carloads or 10.1%; and nonmetallic minerals, down 1,467 carloads or 12.7%.

Excluding coal, carloads were up 20,502 carloads, or 3.3%, in February 2024 from February 2023. Excluding coal and grain, carloads were up 15,531 carloads, or 2.8%.

Total U.S. carload traffic for the first two months of 2024 was 1,910,716 carloads, down 4.6%, or 91,135 carloads, from the same period last year; and 2,246,326 intermodal units, up 7.9%, or 165,335 containers and trailers, from last year.

Total combined U.S. traffic for the first nine weeks of 2024 was 4,157,042 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 1.8% compared to last year.

“Looking ahead, we hope to see improvements in manufacturing output and consumer spending, which are key drivers of rail transportation. This comes as the goods-producing sector begins to rebound from the stagnation experienced in the sector following the post-COVID-19 period,” said Ghayad.

Week Ending March 2, 2024

For the week ending March 2, 2024 (Week 9), total U.S. weekly rail traffic was up 3.9% compared with the same week last year; carloads were down 4.3% and intermodal was up 12.0% compared to 2023.

Canadian and Mexican railroads saw a decrease in carloads, down 3.6% and 14.0%, respectively. Canadian railroads saw a 9.2% increase in intermodal while Mexican railroads reported a 2.2% decrease.

In Week 9 (ending March 2, 2024), U.S. Class I railroads hauled 220,406 carloads and 262,732 containers and trailers.

According to AAR, eight of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2023. They included motor vehicles and parts, up 1,625 carloads, to 15,890; metallic ores and metals, up 1,525 carloads, to 19,732; and miscellaneous carloads, up 1,303 carloads, to 8,939. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2023 were coal, down 14,965 carloads, to 57,929; and nonmetallic minerals, down 1,797 carloads, to 28,835.

For the first nine weeks of 2024, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 220,406 carloads, down 4.3% compared with the same week in 2023; and 262,732 containers and trailers, up 12.0% compared to 2023. U.S. rail traffic was 483,138 carloads and intermodal units, up 3.9% compared with the same week last year.

North American rail volume for the week ending March 2, 2024, on 10 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 324,643 carloads, down 4.6% compared with the same week last year, and 344,823 intermodal units, up 10.9% compared with last year. Total combined weekly rail traffic in North America was 669,466 carloads and intermodal units, up 2.8%. North American rail volume for the first nine weeks of 2024 was 5,792,102 carloads and intermodal units, up 0.9% compared with 2023.

Canadian railroads reported 89,148 carloads for the week, down 3.6%, and 71,183 intermodal units, up 9.2% compared with the same week in 2023. For the first nine weeks of 2024, Canadian railroads reported cumulative rail traffic volume of 1,393,380 carloads, containers and trailers, down 2.3%.

Mexican railroads reported 15,089 carloads for the week, down 14.0%compared with the same week last year, and 10,908 intermodal units, down 2.2%. Cumulative volume on Mexican railroads for the first nine weeks of 2024 was 241,680 carloads and intermodal containers and trailers, up 4.7% from the same point last year.