Commentary

Cowen Insight: 1Q22 Shipper Surveys Say …

Cowen and Company transportation analysts Jason Seidl (Managing Director and Railway Age Wall Street Contributing Editor), Matt Elkott and Elliott Alper recently conducted their first-quarter 2022 rail equipment and shipper surveys. Following are the results, plus insights on The Greenbrier Companies Inc. (GBX), Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN), GATX Corporation, and the Class I railroads, ahead of earnings.

Matt Elkott
Commentary

Cowen: Wabtec Investor Day Insight

March 9 was Investor Day for Wabtec (WAB), and its five-year margin target is ahead of consensus for the next three years (the maximum available). Revenue and EPS targets are not inconsistent with Street expectations. Cowen and Company believes WAB’s geographic breakout could position it well as some rail commodities shift from Russia to other world regions.

Suds With Seidl: Positives From ‘Railroad Happy Hour’

Rail demand continues to be strong as operators lean further into pricing. Leaders from across the railroad and logistics industries provided market insight at Cowen and Company’s recent “Suds With Seidl” event.

Matt Elkott

Rail Equipment Market: The Cowen Insight

Cowen and Company on Feb. 15 held a webinar with five expert panelists addressing the current state and outlook for the rail, locomotive, and railcar leasing and manufacturing markets.

Wabtec President and CEO Rafael Santana

Wabtec: ‘Momentum’ Building for 2022

“The breadth of our product portfolio combined with our multi-year backlog provides us with a solid foundation for growth in 2022,” Wabtec Corp. President and CEO Rafael Santana said during a fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 earnings announcement on Feb. 16; he noted that the company’s FLXdrive battery-electric locomotive is “gaining traction.”

Cowen Insight: 4Q21 Rail Shipper Survey Says …

Rail shippers expect price increases of 4.5% over the next 6-12 months, up 30 bps sequentially and above both our survey’s 3.4% five-year average and long-term 10-year average of 3.6%. The business outlook declined slightly sequentially, and economic confidence ticked up sequentially, while still below the survey’s average. Shippers appear to be largely supportive of reciprocal switching ahead of the pending Surface Transportation Board hearings. We see results as net neutral for the group, and continue to favor Canadian Pacific.

“Order intake for the quarter was more than 35% of all new orders received during fiscal 2021,” Furman said during Greenbrier’s first-quarter 2022 earnings announcement on Jan. 7.

Greenbrier: $3B Backlog in 1Q22, ‘Strengthening’ Market Demand

“During the first fiscal quarter of 2022, Greenbrier achieved its fourth consecutive quarter with a book-to-bill ratio exceeding 1.0x amid the strengthening demand environment,” Chairman and CEO William A. Furman reported on Jan. 7; net earnings came in at $11 million, or $0.32 per diluted share, on revenue of $551 million.

Commentary

Infrastructure Bill: The Cowen Insight

Late Nov. 5, Congress passed the bi-partisan $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, which President Biden is expected to sign soon. While not nearly enough went to traditional infrastructure needs, this was a clear win for the transportation space.

Trinity: Challenging 3Q21, Improving Railcar Market Outlook (Updated, Cowen)

While Trinity Industries’ Rail Products Group was “challenged” in third-quarter 2021, the Railcar Leasing and Management Service Group had “another quarter of strong performance, and we maintain our view that market fundamentals for railcar leasing should continue to ramp up into 2022,” President and CEO Jean Savage said on Oct. 21.

KCS 3Q21: ‘Commercial Headwinds’ Reduce Volumes (Updated, Cowen)

Kansas City Southern (KCS) on Oct. 19 was the first Class I to report third-quarter 2021 earnings. Revenue for the potentially merger-bound railroad—back with original suitor Canadian Pacific (CP)—came in at $744.0 million, growing 13% from the prior-year period ($659.6 million), but volumes fell.

LOAD MORE