Commentary

Takeaways From FTR’s Deep Freight Rail Dive

FTR Transportation Intelligence Chairman and CEO Eric Starks and Vice President Rail and Intermodal Todd Tranausky recently hosted a webinar to examine the rail freight market in terms of volume and recovery pace, as well as their professional outlook for North American freight car manufacturing. As an invited media journalist and commentator, here are my takeaways for Railway Age readers.

Commentary

Chess Game for Railroad Real Estate (UPDATED)

A bidding war has broken out for the Kansas City Southern, but it’s actually more like a chess game. Here are some observations about what it all could mean, especially in terms of railroad “real estate,” from my economist observation post.

Commentary

What Do Shippers Seek From Railroads?

Resiliency is among the key takeaways from Sergio Rebelo, who kicked off the recent 2021 Rail Equipment Finance (REF) Virtual Conference. He is the MUFG Bank Distinguished Professor of International Finance at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management.

Commentary

CPKC: Tri-National Considerations

After a thorough review of my mergers and acquisitions career work, I have reached the conclusion that the Canadian Pacific-Kansas City Southern (“CPKC”) combination has several less-than-optimal locations where overall system performance affecting three nations—the U.S., Mexico and Canada—could be addressed and improved during Surface Transportation Board review.

Commentary

CP-KCS Merger: Let the Games Begin

Several shipper trade associations, a major agricultural shipper and four of the remaining five North American Class I railroads have asked the Surface Transportation Board to review Canadian Pacific’s proposed acquisition of Kansas City Southern under the more stringent 2001 merger rules. A few argue that the smallest Class I rail carrier, KCS, should not get a “gentle pass” STB review. As to the merger itself, most support it, with a few notable exceptions.

Commentary

Railroad Service Improvement Perhaps a C+

Precision Scheduled Railroading overall so far is not anywhere near “precise-delivery railroading.”

Commentary

Don’t Dismiss Freight Rail Electrification

Alternate research suggests that it is too early to walk away from the electrification discussion.

Commentary

Mixed Forecast for Chemicals This Year

Staring into the 2021 abyss, the outlook for rail-hauled chemical traffic looks like a mixed weather forecast: “Early morning fog, changing to overcast skies, with a high-pressure system moving in later for sunny skies.” The fundamental assumption is that the COVID-19 pandemic will gradually abate as immunization shots take hold.

Commentary

To Track 2021 Rail Freight Recovery, Bypass 2020

There’s not much statistical sense in using 2020 data as the benchmark when looking ahead to 2021. The statistical coverage of railway freight volume changes in Canada, Mexico and the United States is excellent. But after the extreme changes week-over-week due to the COVID-19 business impacts, maybe it is time to consider a different method.

Commentary

Are We Genuflecting Too Much to Wall Street?

The six Class I railroads that practice the marketing-term model called Precision Scheduled Railroading (PSR)—all of the “Big 7” except BNSF—are now reporting third-quarter financial results in the remaining days of October. There is, however, an opportunity for a more holistic quarterly briefing. There is an argument for a new checklist of service metrics that would be of interest mostly to customers and, perhaps, public policy groups. However, instead of a balanced scorecard from the carriers, we are mostly seeing accounting reports that cater exclusively to analysts.

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