Susquehanna Financial Group

Commentary

SFG Takeaways From REF 2023

Three days with hundreds of rail equipment industry participants at Rail Equipment Finance 2023 reveal a railcar market that is healthier than we’ve feared into 2023 (lease rate inflation overwhelming the demand-side drag from anemic rail volumes), while the runway for continued investment in diesel locomotives appears to stretch into the 2030s (both rebuilds and new).

(BNSF Photograph)

North American Volume Flat Through Week Five, AAR

Through the first five weeks of 2023 (ending Feb. 4), total North American carload and intermodal traffic was virtually flat (-0.9%) with same point last year, according to the Association of American Railroads’ (AAR) Feb. 8 report. Both the U.S. and Mexico experienced decreases, while Canada saw growth.

(Photograph Courtesy of BNSF, via Twitter)

Week 3: U.S. Rail Traffic Falls Below 2022, 2019 Levels

U.S. freight rail traffic in Week 3 (ending Jan. 21, 2023) dipped 2.1% from the prior-year period, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported Jan. 25. Traffic trailed the same period in 2019 by 14%, according to Susquehanna Financial Group (SFG) Analyst Bascome Majors.

Alan Shaw, President and CEO, Norfolk Southern

NS: ‘A Franchise Built for Growth’ Says Shaw

Norfolk Southern’s (NS) growth strategy was laid out at its Dec. 6 Investor Day, the first under new President and CEO Alan Shaw. Not a “grow-at-all-cost strategy,” Shaw said the Class I will balance three key elements: “Reliable and resilient service; continuous productivity improvement; and smart and sustainable growth.” Cowen and Company and Susquehanna Financial Group (SFG) weigh in.

Week 47: U.S. Rail Traffic Falls Below 2021, 2019 Levels

For the week ending Nov. 26, 2022 (Week 47), total U.S. rail traffic was down 4.1% compared with the same week last year, the Association of American Railroads’ (AAR) reported on Nov. 30. Traffic was down 21% compared with the same week in pre-pandemic 2019, according to Susquehanna Financial Group (SFG) Analyst Bascome Majors.

(Photograph Courtesy of CSX)

AAR: Carloads Up, Intermodal Down for Week 29

U.S. rail traffic for the week ending July 23, 2022 (Week 29) was 498,901 carloads and intermodal units, down 0.8% from the same week last year. Total carloads were 232,565, up 1.1%, while U.S. intermodal volume of 266,336 containers and trailers dipped 2.5% compared with the prior-year period, the Association of American Railroads reported on July 27.

(Photograph Courtesy of NS)

Week 25: U.S. Carloads, Intermodal Down (Again)

For the week ending June 25, 2022 (Week 25), U.S. rail traffic was 493,374 carloads and intermodal units, down 4.4% from the prior-year period, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported June 29. Class I railroads hauled 229,857 carloads, down 3.1%, and 263,517 containers and trailers, down 5.5%. Year-to-date, carloads were virtually flat (down 0.1%) and intermodal volume fell 3.5% compared with the same point last year.

U.S. Rail Traffic Continues Downward Trend in Week 2

Total U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Jan. 15, 2022 was 493,617 carloads and intermodal units, down 6.6% from the same point last year, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported on Jan. 19; it is the second consecutive week that traffic has dropped.

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