KCSM

Mexican SAT Action Rather Ambiguous

In a July 19 press release, the Government of Mexico, through the Ministries of Energy, Finance and the Tax Administration Service (SAT), made public a list of active and suspended taxpayers on its Importers’ Registry, indicating that the suspensions were made due to several taxpayers apparently not being in full compliance with requirements under its Foreign Trade Rules. Among them were Kansas City Southern de México (KCSM) and Grupo Mexico’s Ferrosur rail freight subsidiary.

Cowen and Company Managing Director and Railway Age Wall Street Contributing Editor Jason Seidl

Cowen Surveys Find ‘Encouraging’ Shipper Business Outlook

Two first-quarter 2021 surveys of rail shippers on pricing and business outlook as well as equipment needs conducted by Cowen and Company analysts Jason Seidl (Managing Director and Railway Age Wall Street Contributing Editor), Matt Elkott and Elliot Alper indicate that, compared with the previous quarter, Class I railroad customers are anticipating somewhat higher rate increases, and a slight decline in new railcar demand.

The Cowen and Company analysts reported that Kansas City Southern “again” received the highest “positive” rating, followed by BNSF in their 4Q Rail Shipper Survey.

Cowen 4Q20 Surveys: Rail Pricing, Car Orders Up Slightly, Say Shippers

Rail shippers in fourth-quarter 2020 expected price increases of 3.2% (up 10bps sequentially), and their sub-group of railcar buyers raised order expectations modestly, according to two surveys conducted by Cowen and Company analysts Jason H. Seidl (Managing Director and Railway Age Wall Street Contributing Editor), Matt Elkott and Elliot Alper.

Mexican Rail Regulators Turn Up The Heat

The Rail Transportation Regulatory Agency of Mexico (ARTF), described as “a decentralized body of the Secretariat of Communications and Transportation,” established, nearly 25 years after the country’s national railroad was privatized, rate regulations for its three railroad concessions—Ferrocarril Mexicano, SA de CV (Ferromex), Ferrosur, SA de CV, and Kansas City Southern de México, SA de CV (KSCM).

Cowen: “Concerns Around KSU’s Concession in Mexico Are Overblown”

“We view concerns around Kansas City Southern’s concession in Mexico as overblown. The exclusivity provision cannot be revisited until 2027 and the concession remains in effect for 20 years after that. Further, KSU is improving its operations via PSR, which should aid Mexico as reliable rail service is likely to be a necessity for the country as it grows its manufacturing base. Reiterate Outperform.”

Takeaways From Cowen’s 2Q20 Rail Shipper Survey

“Shippers expect rail price increases of 2.3%, up 40bps sequentially, above rail cost inflation, but well below the survey’s average. Economic expectations are all higher sequentially; some remain below the survey’s average while some are very positive indicators. With PSR cost-cutting, growth opportunities and the ability to capitalize on supply chain near-shoring, Kansas City Southern remains our top rail pick.”

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