At Cowen and Company, we expect North American railcar demand to recover in 2021. One of the best-positioned suppliers? The Greenbrier Companies (GBX), with more than a 40% manufacturing share following the acquisition of ARI. Railcar markets in Europe and Brazil are also improving. All of this plus the cost-cutting measures GBX has taken make it our top 2021 pick.
Greenbrier’s fiscal fourth-quarter 2020 financial results (the company begins its fiscal year on Oct. 1 of the prior year) are based on a “strong liquidity position,” and a $2.4 billion railcar backlog of 24,600 as of Aug. 31, which includes fourth-quarter orders of 2,800 cars valued at approximately $250 million.
In the two weeks following Cowen and Company’s mid-September Transportation and Sustainable Mobility Conference, analyst Matt Elkott, with input from colleagues Adam Kramer and Jason Seidl (Managing Director and Railway Age Wall Street Contributing Editor), noted that railcar inquiries “have ticked up. While translation into orders may not yet be commensurate with inquiries due to election and pandemic uncertainty, there appears to be an improvement in underlying demand” that should carry forward into a recovery in 2021.
“Order expectations by the shipper sub-group of railcar buyers were mixed. While a smaller percentage expects to order railcars, the certainty level about ordering has increased. Among railcar suppliers, we favor Trinity for the flexibility of its manufacturing/leasing model, and Greenbrier for its international diversification and cost cutting. GATX’s lease terms offer it some protection.”
GBX Fiscal 3Q2020: “Liquidity Target Achieved, Backlog Provides Forward Visibility” as Furman Postpones Retirement
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc., in its third fiscal quarter ended May 31, 2020, achieved its $1 billion liquidity target and generated operating cash flow in excess of $220 million, with a backlog of an estimated value of $2.7 billion. Concurrently, the company reported that Bill Furman will remain as Chairman and CEO for another two years.
The Greenbrier Companies (GBX) has amended its 50/50 joint venture agreement with Grupo Industrial Monclova, S.A. De C.V. (GIMSA), its manufacturing partner at Greenbrier GIMSA facilities in Monclova, Mexico. This and other measures aim to help GBX achieve its goal of $1 billion in total liquidity.
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) has suspended new railcar production at its Greenbrier Gunderson flagship manufacturing facility in Portland, Ore., due to the economic impacts of COVID-19.
Greenbrier’s fiscal second-quarter 2020 financial results (the company begins its fiscal year on Oct. 1 of the prior year) are based on orders of 8,500 railcars valued at more than $815 million, a “Strong liquidity position targeting $1 billion of available liquidity,” and a $3.2 billion backlog that “provides forward visibility.”
Cowen and Company recently released its Railcar Industry Forecast, which predicts 21% and 9% declines in deliveries and orders, respectively, this year.
The Greenbrier Companies (GBX) reported financial results for its first fiscal quarter ended Nov. 30, 2019, and the highlights include orders for 4,500 diversified railcars valued at $450 million; railcar deliveries totaling 6,200 units; and the Board increasing the quarterly dividend 8% to $.27 per share, payable on Feb. 18, 2020, to shareholders as of Jan. 28, 2020.