Author: Matt Elkott

Tom Ellman, CFO, GATX (left); and Shari Hellerman, Head of Investor Relations, GATX (right).
Commentary

GATX Meeting Takeaways From TD Cowen

We spent a day in two Ohio cities with GATX CFO Tom Ellman and Head of Investor Relations Shari Hellerman. Takeaways include: continued strength in North America railcar leasing; growth in India, where GATX constitutes substantially all the private-sector railcar leasing landscape; Europe growth; and a commitment to investing in long-lived, service-intensive assets, an investment grade, and returning excess cash.

Justin Roberts, VP, Corporate Finance & Treasurer, The Greenbrier Companies
Commentary

Greenbrier Group Meeting Takeaways From TD Cowen

We hosted a virtual group meeting with Justin Roberts, VP, Corporate Finance & Treasurer, The Greenbrier Companies. Mr. Roberts remains confident in GBX’s long-term operational plan, launched in April at the company’s first-ever investor day. Inquiry and order activity has been solid in recent weeks. He expects stable industry builds at or modestly above replacement for the next few years.

Jason Kuehn, Vice President Rail Practice, Oliver Wyman
Commentary

REF Locomotive Day Takeaways From TD Cowen

Most locomotive energy transition scenarios bode well for Wabtec and to a lesser extent Caterpillar. There appears to be a near-consensus within the industry that the fleet will be zero-emission non-diesel in the long term but no clear consensus on what that will be, although hydrogen electrolyzer is a leading candidate. Bridge technologies could include biofuels, renewable diesel, hydrogen ICE, and battery.

(Photograph Courtesy of Wabtec)
Commentary

Rail Equipment Expert Panel Takeaways: TD Cowen

While we don’t know definitively, a part of Wabtec Corp.’s pre-owned locomotive order may not have been reflected in its guidance and could mean a mild incremental benefit, according to four rail and rail equipment expert panelists at TD Cowen’s June 27 virtual roundtable on the current state and outlook of the rail, locomotive, and railcar leasing and manufacturing markets.

(The Greenbrier Companies Photograph)
Commentary

TD Cowen Insight: GBX Investor Day

For The Greenbrier Companies (GBX), we see gradually subsiding volatility in revenue, margins and earnings over the next three to five years. This is as the company targets higher—albeit measured—lease fleet growth, and as the right-sized manufacturing footprint for GBX and the industry should mean less erratic annual builds.

Commentary

REF 2023: Push for Modal Share Pursuit Most Palpable in Years

The call on the Class I’s by other rail industry stakeholders to pursue modal share gain more aggressively is nothing new, but this year at Railroad Financial Corporation’s annual Rail Equipment Finance conference, it feels more palpable than at any time in many years.

Matt Elkott
Commentary

Cowen: Who Will Win the Locomotive Race?

Cowen and Company examines whether Caterpillar, Inc. could explore strategic alternatives for its transportation business, or at least the rail piece. An enterprise value-to-revenue multiple of 2.5x-2.75x may not be unreasonable, putting the transportation business value at approximately $12 billion.

Commentary

Rail Equipment Webinar Takeaways: Cowen

Tightness across a wide array of freight cars has continued, and with supply chain challenges limiting the industry’s ability to produce to demand, the lease rate momentum looks sustainable, according to expert panelists at Cowen and Company’s Jan. 19 webinar on the current state and outlook of the rail, locomotive, and railcar leasing and manufacturing markets.

Matt Elkott
Commentary

Cowen: GATX ‘Improving Return Dynamics’

GATX has taken advantage of low interest rates over the past few years to improve its debt profile, which is currently 90% fixed, with an average maturity of 10 years. Meanwhile, spot lease rates are expected to continue their seven-quarter run of sequential growth. This should lead to progressively higher returns for the company, which is now likely to focus on locking into much higher lease terms.