Takeaways from Cowen and Company’s recent Rail Equipment Webinar show that locomotive upgrades remain solid, as traffic growth continues. Elevated inquiries for newly built railcars should begin to translate into orders gradually, despite the steel premium. Lessors are well-positioned as freight demand rises, railcar supply decreases and new builds fall short of replacement levels this year.
Here are a few follow-up thoughts to our May 7 report, Car Conundrum: Amid Rising Demand, Who’s “Steeling” the Show. We believe a cyclical inflection point and a number of macro factors could elevate interest
Railcar demand is on the rise, but so is the price of steel, which Cowen and Company estimates has put a 15%-25% premium on newly built equipment.
Equipment analyst Matt Elkott offers perspectives on two of the rail industry’s biggest OEMs.
At Cowen and Company, we are revising our transportation OEM and machinery earnings estimates for fourth-quarter 2020 and 2021, and introducing our 2022 estimates; updating our North American Class 8 production forecast; and fine-tuning our railcar supply demand model. What are we seeing? Gradually improving supply-side dynamics.
At Cowen and Company, we expect North American railcar demand to recover in 2021. One of the best-positioned suppliers? The Greenbrier Companies (GBX), with more than a 40% manufacturing share following the acquisition of ARI. Railcar markets in Europe and Brazil are also improving. All of this plus the cost-cutting measures GBX has taken make it our top 2021 pick.
Rail transit rail equipment is among the transportation equipment subsectors most likely to benefit from a potential “Blue Wave” in January following a Joe Biden/Kamala Harris win and the Democrats flipping enough seats in the U.S. Senate in the November Presidential election to take control of that chamber.* As well, a power shift in Washington could drive a public transit service recovery in the U.S.
