Author: Jason Seidl

Cowen and Company Managing Director and Railway Age Wall Street Contributing Editor Jason Seidl

Potential Modal Shifts as Diesel Stays Hot: Cowen

U.S. diesel pricing remains elevated, passing along significant costs to shippers via fuel surcharges. At Cowen and Company, we believe sustained high diesel pricing will ultimately benefit the railroads and IMCs (intermodal marketing companies) as shippers explore different modes of transport.

Cowen Take on KCS: Mexican Volumes Up, Eyes on Labor

Cowen & Company hosted the Kansas City Southern (KCS) executive team in New York City last week for investor meetings. While challenges across
Mexico continue to hinder railroad operations, discussions with regulatory authorities appear to be moving in the right direction.

The Cowen Take on Class I 2Q21

At Cowen and Company, we are adjusting our rail models in advance of second-quarter earnings reports due later this month from the Class I railroads. The models reflect carloads in the quarter, mix, fuel, FX (foreign exchange) and cost implications as the supply chain remains tight.

CN/KCS Voting Trust Approval Better Than Even

Following the closing of the public comment period for the CN voting trust, which ended June 28, we are re-calibrating our expectations and now believe there to be a ~60% chance the Surface Transportation Board approves it. Our viewpoints swayed slightly in favor of CN following a closer look at the public comments over the past 20 days.

Cowen: ‘More Caution Surrounding Voting Trusts’

On May 19, we hosted a call with a noted transportation attorney to discuss the latest news surrounding the proposed merger involving KSU/CP/CNI. The STB decision on May 17 indicates more caution surrounding voting trusts; CNI must show that the trust keeps a level playing field. The key for CNI will be that public benefits outweigh harms.

Suds With Seidl: “Railroad Happy Hour”

We hosted rail industry experts in our third Suds with Seidl event. The overall mood was optimistic. The outlook for 2021 was strong, with one participant noting he was surprised to hear just how bullish his customers were this past week. Class I’s may be missing business opportunities, but there is still hope for greater communication via technology initiatives. We remain positive on the rail group.