Author: Jason Seidl, Matt Elkott, Elliot Alper and Uday Khanapurkar, TD Cowen


TD Cowen 1Q24 Rail Shipper Survey Says …

Our survey is comprehensive and covers a broad range of industrial and consumer industries, among others. Chemicals, Transportation, and Manufacturing comprised the largest percentages of participants. Shippers completing this survey had approximately


TD Cowen 1Q24 Earnings Preview

We adjust our models as we head into Q124 earnings–a slow start to the year due to harsh weather was followed with a rebound and U.S. carloadings turning positive YTD, led by


Report: Activist Investor Attempting NS Takeover

According to an unsubstantiated late-Jan. 31 Wall Street Journal article, an investor group led by activist Ancora Holdings Group, LLC intends to run a proxy fight and replace Norfolk Southern President and

“While rail bridge closures at Eagle Pass and El Paso affect approximately 45% of UP’s cross-border business, we expect the impact on overall volumes to be minimal due to quick resolution of activity,” TD Cowen analysts report. (Union Pacific Photograph)

TD Cowen’s 2024 Rail Preview

We modestly lower our fourth-quarter 2023 estimates on mix pressures that are likely to be somewhat mitigated by fuel tailwinds. Intermodal recovery comes at the price of yield given the protracted over-the-road (OTR) rate trough. A revenue per carload rebound is likely a late-2024 story, at best. First-quarter 2024 should see typical seasonal softening, which is well understood as the focus shifts to recovery. We favor Union Pacific (UP) and Norfolk Southern (NS) in 2024 on margin recovery prospects.


Railroad Happy Hour a Bit Happier This Time

Leaders in the railroad and logistics market continue to see a challenged intermodal market and holiday peak season. Service has been materially improved on both coasts and the Class Is have plenty of capacity to handle more volume. STB Chairman Oberman announced his departure, a surprise to us and all panelists, leaving the seat open until POTUS names his successor.


TD Cowen: Still Searching for Positives in Near-Term

At TD Cowen, we are lowering our rail estimates ahead of third-quarter earnings reports to reflect a very challenged environment. Leaders in the rail and logistics market who attended our latest Railroad Happy Hour” called the current outlook “bleak,” with growing uncertainty in 2025.


TD Cowen: Day 1 Transport Conference Takeaways

We hosted freight industry “fireside chats” and presentations on Day 1 of the TD Cowen 16th Annual Global Transportation Conference, being held Sept. 6-7 in Boston. While we heard that the rail

TD Cowen: 2Q23 Surveys Say …

Railcar demand showed some resilience against a tough macro backdrop, although we view the results of our Second Quarter 2023 Rail Equipment Survey as a slight incremental negative, similar to our 1Q23


Why We’re Skeptical of a 2H Rebound

Rail volumes have not seen a rebound in 2Q. Intermodal contract rates are down notably and are likely to pressure the group, though sequential volume improvements on the West Coast ports and