The transportation mode that some critics dismiss as a 19th-Century throwback rolls into the 21st Century on an impressive growth curve.

By Julian Wolinsky, Contributing Editor

Passenger rail had another year of solid ridership growth during 1999, in large part due to the surging U.S. economy. Plans for new systems and expansion of existing lines are growing, fueled by a record infusion of public funding. Railway Age's exclusive annual survey of the rolling stock market shows a modern record for deliveries and a backlog nearly double that of just three years ago.

Although the Fiscal Year 2000 Transportation Appropriations Bill included $5.8 billion for transit, a government-wide omnibus spending package approved in late November ordered each department to cut 0.38% from FY 2000 budgets. That will amount to just $22 million less for transit, but it's up to the Secretary of Transportation to determine which programs will be reduced. Still, there will be a substantial influx of federal money to help local agencies with capital projects and new-car purchases. State and local governments are also becoming more generous in financing rail lines as elected officials increasingly realize they can't solve traffic congestion with more pavement.

Light rail is now the mode of choice for new construction as communities realize that heavy-rail metros are difficult to promote and expensive to build. Opposition to highway expansion remains intense among residents of many urban areas who fear having their neighborhoods bulldozed for new freeways. Thus, the ongoing LRT construction boom that started over 20 years ago shows no signs of abating as communities from Spokane to Charlotte look to LRT as an alternative to growing traffic congestion.

The unfortunate debacle in constructing the Los Angeles Red Line-runaway costs, poor oversight, and political meddling were just some of the problems-in large part ended new heavy rail projects. But extensions to existing systems in New York, Washington, Atlanta, and San Francisco are moving forward vigorously. Indeed, the New York MTA is poised to begin the most ambitious spurt of subway building since the depression years of the 1930s. Politicians and business leaders increasingly understand that effective rapid transit stimulates the economy, creating jobs and generating even more prosperity.

Critics continue to circulate tired, discredited arguments against rail transit, but many of these naysayers are nothing more than hired guns who rent themselves to rail opponents in an effort to sway public opinion. Their impractical alternatives (an expanded road network, deployment of more buses on already overcrowded streets and highways) are ineffective solutions in heavily traveled corridors. Meanwhile, independent studies-some of them from conservatives-show that LRT will attract riders who never considered the bus as an alternative to the private car. So, in cities nationwide, advance planning and construction of new LRT lines and incremental extensions to existing routes are moving ahead, and these should keep the order books of car manufacturers growing. During 1999 there were two large LRV orders-the biggest from Sacramento Regional Transit to Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles (CAF) of Spain for 54 cars. The other, from the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, San Jose, Calif., went to Kinkisharyo (USA), Inc., for 30 low-floor LRVs. VTA becomes the fourth U.S. transit system to order low-floor cars (Portland's Tri-Met was the first in 1993, with an order from Siemens).

Still eluding the industry is any degree of standardization (like the PCC of 65 years ago) that could lower capital and maintenance costs as it has in bus building. Efforts are under way by such groups as the IEEE Rail Transit Vehicle Interface Standards Committee, but they are confined to subsystem compatibility.

In heavy rail, New York continues buying vehicles by the hundreds. Currently, Bombardier and Kawasaki are building nearly 1,100 subway cars for New York City Transit. Additional purchases are on the horizon once the MTA's new $17.5 billion five-year capital plan (RA, November 1999, p. 25) gets rolling. Other major subway operators appear to be content with their current equipment, having replaced much of their older stock. Most of their capital money will be spent on half-life overhauls. The only other system with an unfilled order is Atlanta's MARTA, with 100 cars coming from Breda. Other properties that may soon be looking for new vehicles are Boston and PATH, the latter with plans to renew a large portion of its fleet.

Bombardier and Alstom were the big winners in 1999's commuter rail sweepstakes, with the former receiving orders for bilevels from Metrolink in Los Angeles, West Coast Express in Vancouver, B.C., and Altamont Commuter Express in central California. The New York MTA continues to give Bombardier repeat orders for EMUs to re-equip the Long Island Rail Road and Metro-North. Alstom scored big with NJ Transit on an award of 130 single-level coaches and cab cars and an option for another 100. The next big order from NJ Transit will be for some 200 bilevel coaches; a new design compatible with Amtrak's Hudson River tunnels is currently in the works.

Amtrak's quest for Congressionally-mandated operational self-sufficiency in large part will be riding on the new Bombardier/ Alstom Acela Express high speed trainsets that should debut on the Boston-New York-Washington Northeast Corridor sometime this spring. Amtrak ridership and revenues continue to rise, this in no small measure due to the numerous partnerships forged with states for expanded, upgraded intercity rail service (RA, December 1999, p. 21). Amtrak's partnership with Washington State DOT on the popular Cascades Talgo is just one example.

As the accompanying chart reveals, the outlook for additional rolling stock orders is strong, as scores of proposed new services work their way up the funding ladder. In addition to those mentioned above, projects with strong potential are located in such diverse cities as Cincinnati, Louisville, Orlando, St. Paul, Tampa, Austin, Ft. Worth, and Memphis. Serious plans for regional rail are moving ahead in Knoxville, Raleigh-Durham, north San Diego County, and Atlanta. All of this means a strong and competitive future for suppliers to the passenger rail industry as the 21st Century gets under way.