Traffic & Market Trends
  Industry Indicators
    Traffic Originated
    Projected Railcar Deliveries
    Traffic Trends
  Railway Market

In This Issue
  BNSF+CN: Colossus of roads?
  Passenger rail: Strong, stable, secure
  Railroader of the Century
  ECP Brakes

Commentary
  From the Editor
  Commentary of the Month

Car deliveries begin predicted drop

Based on current backlogs and recent production trends, Economic Planning Associates was estimating in December that 1999 railcar deliveries would reach 71,700 units, not far behind 1998's 75,700 but will drop significantly beginning this year (see chart above). The overall slow-down is attributable to fewer loads of such key commodities as coal, grain, and domestic steel. "On the brighter side," says EPA, "strong levels of retail sales and North American production of light vehicles are keeping demand for autorack carriers at healthy levels and reviving interest in auto parts boxcars." Additionally, "stable growth in chemicals, petroleum, and liquid foods is stimulating continued interest in tank cars." Intermodal equipment will also be on the rise as EPA notes a rebound in intermodal loadings and predicts "steady growth of the NAFTA economies, a revival in the economic fortunes of Southeast Asia, and the insatiable appetite of the American consumer [that] should stimulate expanding volumes of outbound and inbound products."

"The extremely weak orders pattern of this year will dominate railcar deliveries in 2000," says EPA. "We envision a production year in which first-half deliveries are heavily dependent upon opening year backlogs."