"Investors moist be patient," suggested Dahlman Rose & Co. analyst Jason H. Seidl, a Railway Age contributing editor, in an investor's note.
He went on to say: "We believe Pershing (the hedge fund) will attempt to implement significant changes at Canadian Pacific to improve the operating ratio (OR), which came in at 80.1% in 1Q12 and 81.3% in 2011, a year plagued with unusually severe weather especially in CP's network. Pershing Square Capital's OR target is 65.0% with the activist investor's CEO candidate Hunter Harrison admitting such a target would take years to achieve. Our OR assumptions are 77.0% and 75.9% for 2012 and 2013, respectively."
Seidl added: "Our model calls for 13% and 9% revenue growth in 2012 and 2013, respectively, with EPS growing 43% and 29% for the respective periods."
Seidl pointed that that CP shares have increased nearly 70% since Pershing Square purchased its first big stake in CP last September. Class I shares generally (including CP's) increased less than 30% in the same period.